Predictable Investing is a stock market timing newsletter, investing for the long-term using index mutual funds. Our proprietary tools and methodology signals the start and end of multi-year market trends. We invest in the Vanguard S&P500 market index fund during rising bull markets and in Money Market funds during long periods of falling stock prices (bear markets). Our unique Predictable Investing model has a great record of signalling when to be invested in the stock market, and when to be out in the safety of money market funds. To learn more about our philosophy and who we are, go to the About_PI page .
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HOME PAGE - Last Updated on July 23, 2010*
1. Market news and analysis are on Current Outlook page.
2. Changes in this update are on the What's New page.
3.User's Manual describes how to manage your portfolio.
4. FREE Sign Up to view the "Members only" Latest Data Page.
Suggested sequence for the weekly update is to view What's New--->Current Outlook --->Latest Data Pages.
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JULY 2010 ISSUE
PREDICTABLE INVESTING PORTFOLIO: The Predictable Investing Portfolio started on January 3, 1995 with $100,000, and its current value on June 4, 2010 is $392,931. The money has increased to 3.93 times in 15.42 years! The compounded annual return over this period is 9.28% and we have made 223% more money than just buying and holding the S&P500 index. For a description of our portfolio, and details of these trades, see the Portfolio page .
CURRENT STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: Discussion of the indicators, current economic news, and their effect on the stock market, is on the Current Outlook page. Our proprietary Long-Term Tracking Signal (LTTS), turned positive on July 22, 2010. The overall Predictable Investing model is BUY, with 5 out of 5 indicators positive, and with a positive LTTS.
FREE MEMBERSHIP: Sign up for a FREE, no obligation membership by providing your contact information on the Sign-up Page. You will receive the User ID and Password by return email that will enable you to view the detailed information available in the "members only" sections.
ECONOMIC HISTORY LESSONS: It is said that "those who do not heed the lessons of history, are doomed to repeat its mistakes". Our history lessons teach the many aspects of investing and describe how the stock market has behaved under various economic conditions. See the list on the archive page . The latest lesson was posted on September 5, 2008, entitled "Are we in a Recession?".
DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment adviser, and do not have a formal degree or training in economics. The markets are risky, and investing is risky. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. The purpose of this website is solely for information and learning, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research, and the data are believed to be reliable. Our past success does not guarantee that future results will be profitable.
GENERAL: This website is for those interested in learning about long-term mutual fund investing, and particularly those who manage their own money. We discourage short-term timing, and do not recommend individual stocks or sectors. Extensive dialog is encouraged. Send you questions and comments to Sanjoy@PredictableInvesting.com .
INVESTING TERMINOLOGY: Financial and investing literature is full of jargon and acronyms, making it very confusing for the average person. We have added a section with straightforward explanations of the terms used in PI. See the page marked terminology .
UPDATES: Updates are made every weekend, with the latest financial headlines and numbers that could affect the market. Details of the changes in the latest update is in what's new .
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