ABOUT PI PAGE


 PREDICTABLE INVESTING  was started by Dr. Sanjoy Ghose, who believes that nobody cares about investing your money as much as you do.
   After being misled, placed in inappropriate investments and losing money in "safe investments" as touted by the financial brokers (aka "sharks"), he finally took control of his own investment furure. This FREE newsletter is his gift to share his insights with you. Learn how to take control of your IRA's, 401k's, 403b's, and other investments to take care of your family and retirement.
  Education and investing knowledge is the key to maximizing the probability of making money. Dr. Ghose cuts through all the hype and hysterical nonsense written by the media and 'financial gurus'  trying to separate you from your hard earned money.

BACKGROUND: Dr. Sanjoy Ghose has a PhD in Engineering from Stanford University, an MS from the University of California at Berkeley, and a BE from Calcutta University. During his 40 year career he has been instrumental in technology research and development, and high-volume manufacturing of computer storage devices and peripherals. He was a senior executive (VP, Executive VP and CTO) at several well known California Silicon Valley companies and startups. He has also been issued over 20 US and foreign patents.

      Since his retirement from high-tech, he has been publishing newsletters on investing, a subject he has studied extensively for over 18 years. He uses engineering, statistical and signal processing techniques to analyze the raw economic data. Most importantly, he is able to explain the implications of the data to non-financial persons, in simple and understandable terms.

BASIC PHILOSOPHY: Significant amounts of money can be made by being fully invested in the stock market during long-term rising bull markets, for instance during the 18.6 year period between Feb 1982 and October 2000. On the other hand, large amounts of money can also be lost by being fully invested during falling bear markets, for instance the 2.5 year period between Oct 2000 and June 2003. Therefore, our main analytical focus is to determine those long multi-year periods when conditions are favorable for a bull market and those periods when a bear market is likely. 

LONG-TERM MARKET TIMING:  We do not believe that it is possible to predict the direction of the stock market over the short or medium term, which are periods of weeks to months. This is because so many extraneous events and factors affect the short and intermediate direction of the market. Over the long-term however, fundamental economic factors dominate the market performance, and all the "random noise" is cancelled and averaged out. Our models are therefore set up to focus on only the long-term market direction.

MODEL: The Predictable Investing model relies on 5 indicators as shown on the Current Outlook  Page. The score from these indicators along with a long-term trend following signal, allows us to determine if the environment is positive or negative for future stock market gains.

   During positive periods, we invest in the Vanguard SP500 Index Fund, a broadly diversified, low-expense ratio, index mutual fund. Other suitable investments are the Total Market Index Mutual Funds from Vanguard, Fidelity, and TRowe Price, or the Schwab 1000 fund. The equivalent Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) are also suitable. During negative periods, we safely park the money in the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund.

   Our model is designed to generate infrequent long-term market timing signals only. Since its inception on Jan 1, 1995, it has generated only 1 sell (October 24, 2000), and 1 buy (on June 6, 2003). This keeps trading expenses and tax liabilities to a minimum.


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